In light of the upcoming 76th annual Tony Awards on June 11, 2023, the team of SuperBettingSites decided to check what bookmakers expect when it comes to the Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play category. The analysis is focused on this particular category, intrigued by the fact that two of the nominees for the theatrical award are well-known names from the TV and film industries.
According to bookmakers, Jodie Comer and Jessica Chastain are the two most likely candidates to win the prestigious award. Here are the bookmakers’ odds for all four of the nominated actresses.
* Jodie Comer, “Prima Facie” – 1.53 ( -189 | 53/100) average odds (65.4% implied probability)
Jodie Comer, known for her roles as Villanelle in Killing Eve and Elizabeth of York in The White Princess miniseries, is the favorite for Leading Actress in a Play, with odds averaging 1.53. In percentage terms, this sees the market predicting a 65.4% implied probability that she will add a Tony to her BAFTA, Emmy, and Laurence Olivier awards.
* Jessica Chastain, “A Doll’s House” – 4.33 (+333 | 333/100) average odds (23.1% implied probability)
With a surprisingly large lag in terms of her chances to win, Academy Award-winner (The Eyes of Tammy Faye, 2022) Jessica Chastain currently occupies the second position. According to bookmakers, there is a 23.1% implied probability that the American actress will bring the Tony Award medallion home.
* Audra McDonald, “Ohio State Murders” – 8.00 (+700 | 7/1) average odds (12.5% implied probability)
According to the current betting odds, the third position is held by Audra McDonald, defined by the Los Angeles Times as the “greatest living musical theater performer”. McDonald’s chances of winning her 7th Tony award are estimated at 12.5%.
* Jessica Hecht, “Summer, 1976” – 8.00 (+700 | 7/1) average odds (12.5% implied probability)
Also a notable nominee, Jessica Hecht (Suzan Bunch on Friends, Carol on The Boys) has the same implied probability of winning the coveted award as Audra McDonald. She plays Alice in Summer, 1976 by David Auburn, a minimalistic and intimate tale about a female friendship.
“Although the one-woman play ’Prima Facie’ is just a debut for Jodie Comer on Broadway, she is definitely hard to beat in the Leading Actress in a Play category. Her astounding solo performance as a sexually assaulted barrister already brought her a prestigious accolade this year (Best Actress at Laurence Olivier Awards on April 2, 2023) and we are confident that a Tony will follow.” – comments Marcus Goldberg, odds analyst at SuperBettingSites.